Tag Archives: worldcup

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Layman Prediction of Worldcup

So, based on the performance in the groups stage so far, for the Semi-finals, I will pick The Netherlands vs. Argentina, and Brazil vs. either Germany or France.

Of course the road for Brazil is tough because both Chile and Colombia were doing quite well in the groups stage as well.

I have been a fan of The Netherlands since the era of Frank Rijkaard, van Basten, Ruud Gullit, and then Dennis Bergkamp, and then, Marc Overmars, Phillip Cocu, Edgar Davids, Frank de Boer, Ronald de Boer, and Patrick Kluivert.

Seriously I am not too attached to the recent stars Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie, but I still want them to beat MEX and then CRC and then ARG. Then they will face Brazil. I can’t say too much about that, but I know that it would be a good game to watch.

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World-Map

American World Cup

Traditional Wisdom: If South American is the host, then South American has a higher chance in #WorldCup.

So far in #WorldCup2014, almost ALL teams from South American region go to the next round: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Uruguay, except Ecuador, which is now 2nd in the group (but since they are facing France tonight, although they have equal points as the Swiss, their chances are slimmer).

You might say, what about Honduras? In geography, you are correct, but in FIFA, they are counted as the member of the North and Central American region, which is the same group with USA, Costa Rica and Mexico. And yes, most of them are in the next round (USA can proceed to next round as long as Klinsmann is able to at least get a draw from his motherland Germany).

South, North & Central American, combined 2 regions, out of the total 10 teams go to the World Cup, 7,8 or even 9 teams can make to the next round. Amazing.

How about other regions as a comparison? Europe seems bad, but they started with 13 teams, and still have Netherlands, France, Germany, Greece and Belgium. Swiss has a good chance, Russian needs to beat Algerian, and Portuguese has 2% chance. Nonetheless, it is still almost half of the region.

African and Asian are worse. Out of the 9 teams combined, it seems that the only reasonable hope is Algerian to beat Russian for one spot, and Iranian to fight the last spot with Nigerian (but they are not playing against each other).

Of course, the WORST region is the Oceania. There were 12 teams to fight for 0.5 spot. At the end New Zealand was the one, but they lost to Mexico at the play off game and so the region has zero presence in the Brazil 2014 (Australia is counted as Asian country now, just so that you know).

估波仔

昨日是一個大日子。我不是指我的牛一;生日年年有,未算大。我指的是四年一度的世界盃開幕日。

今次不單只是首次在非洲舉行的世界盃,而且也是近年少有在冬天舉行的世界盃。何解?因為對上一次在南半球舉行世界盃已是一九七八年的阿根廷。以往三十年都在北半球的夏天踢,今次轉為南半球的冬天,可能變數大增!

足球有趣的地方就是這裡。如果要用常理去估,最大路的可能會估決賽巴西對西班牙。但廿二個球員人再加球証旁証,在一個並不平滑的草地上將球踢來踢去,其實不可控制的變數甚多!有變數,球賽才有可觀性。

說到變數之多,便要說說上屆冠軍意大利。還記得四年前上屆世界盃初段,當屆冠軍意大利未被一致看好。在弱組首名出線後,十六強是在臨完場補時階段由托迪博得十二碼險勝澳洲晉級。四強淘汰德國的兩個入球也是在加時最後一分鐘才射入。冠軍戰更要與法國互射十二碼才分得出勝負。整個奪冠過程都驚險萬分,也因此非常有可觀性。

但最神奇的,是打從決賽周初段我們已預測到意大利將會奪冠!當時身在 ICU 的外父迷糊間說他「見」到意大利捧盃。他其實一向也沒留意足球,在 ICU 內又沒有看電視和報紙,可能連意大利是否有份踢世界盃也未必清楚,但他卻可道出意大利贏得冠軍,說的時候更像是在說一條已看過的新聞一樣平常!他那時其實是經宇宙的 wormhole 於另一度空間看見了已發生的賽果嗎?

四年後的今天,Jacob 已經四歲,而外父亦也離開了我們四年。我仍是足球的門外漢一名。要再次估波仔,普通人只懂跟 ranking、走線和賠率大路的說冠亞季殿伍陸柒捌可能是西班牙巴西德國荷蘭阿根廷葡萄牙英格蘭和法國,如果足球不會爆冷的話。但我寧願一注獨贏買意大利再次奪標,就當是一個懷念。而且,波係圓架嘛!

Nike 世界盃廣告《Write the Future》

Nike 推出了新的一輯南非世界盃廣告《Write the Future》(國內譯作「踢出傳奇」)。繼兩年前歐洲國家盃那《一球成名》式第一身廣告後,這次繼續找來品牌旗下的足球巨星撐場。不過今次的主角不再是「自己」,而是回歸到眾球星的身上。

有趣的地方是每段畫面都像在說那一球會如何影響這個球員場外的現實世界。首先登場的杜奧巴扭過所有後衛,避過守門員,近門射向意大利龍門的遠柱。這刻,所有科特迪瓦的球迷都歡喜若狂,大鑼大鼓去慶祝。但話口未完,簡拿華路便奮力走向門前倒掛金鈎將球救出,而他這一腳更成為日後舞場表演的指定一踢!

鏡頭一轉卻見朗尼在完場前最後一分鐘於中場盤球而上,然後作出一記致命的長傳。怎知力水不夠,卻被列貝利飛身截去。全英球迷立時起哄上街暴亂,報章亦大罵,股市更大瀉!最慘的就是朗尼因而從此要過著潦倒的生活終老!想到這裡,朗尼立即發奮向前衝,在列貝利起腳前一刻將球鏟走。登時他的人生立即改寫,成為英雄之餘更使股市大幅反彈,他自己更接受了英女皇授勳!

之後還有與今屆世界盃無緣的朗拿甸奴不斷玩弄球技成為世人(包括 Kobe)追仿的對像。不過最有氣氛還是個結局:找來 Nike 旗下最靚仔的C朗去射罰球。射前那刻更將其明星化(還為他立雕像!),貫徹他一向要靚要出名的性格!

有趣的是,那些在廣告裡出過場的球衣,只有巴西、英格蘭和壓軸的葡萄牙是真的,其餘的不是沒有標誌就是胡亂弄一個上去。為甚麼呢,很簡單,在廣告裡這麼多隊國家隊當中,只有巴西和葡萄牙是用 Nike 的。至於英格蘭的 Umbro 嘛?其實也是 Nike 旗下的品牌,所以也出得街!本來甚搶鏡的橙色荷蘭兵團也是 Nike 的,但沒有了雲尼斯達萊,剩下的荷蘭佬又真的沒有誰像是廣告的料子。

還有,結果於三分鐘的廣告內,其實從沒有一球是射得進的,可能不想有任何的錯誤預測吧?要看最尾結局C朗入那球罰球就要等真正踢世界盃時才有得看了!